Record low gold open interest despite strong market sentiment – TDS

According to TDS Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali, the Gold market is currently presenting an opportunity. Despite the strong macroeconomic case for Gold, the current extreme lows in aggregate open interest at CME Gold historically indicate a potential rise in prices. This indicates that Gold is perceived as overbought but in reality, it is under-owned. It is surprising that this is happening while the US Dollar is losing its role as a safe haven. Ghali emphasizes that Gold’s recent rally is driven by trust rather than demand. As market conditions improve, we can expect an increase in futures open interest, particularly due to buying from CTAs and algorithmic trading. This buying activity may continue into next week, possibly totaling up to 30% of algos’ maximum capacity. Ghali also predicts that if there is another sudden shift in the global trade situation, it could contribute to a surge in buying interest by this summer. With a lack of activity from macro funds, signs of selling fatigue from ETF holders, and strong historical returns from such low levels of open interest, it is likely that positioning alone will support Gold prices.

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