Despite the implementation of reciprocal and retaliatory tariffs from the US, China’s economy showed resilience in April. UOB Group’s economist Ho Woei Chen explains that while there was a slowdown in industrial production and uncertainties affected retail sales and urban fixed assets investment, there is still positive momentum. However, the property market is a concern for policy makers as home prices, property investment and residential property sales declined in April. With the 90-day trade truce between US and China, forecasts for China’s GDP growth have been revised upwards to 4.6% for 2025, with a projected growth of 4.9% in the second quarter and 4.2% in the second half of the year. The future outlook for China’s economy is highly dependent on a lasting trade agreement between the two countries, as well as the eventual tariff rates. The Chinese government’s stimulus measures are expected to provide further support for economic stability. UOB Group maintains their forecast of a 0.1% interest rate cut in the fourth quarter of 2025, with projections of the 7-day reverse repo rate, 1Y LPR and 5Y LPR at 1.30%, 2.90%, and 3.40%, respectively, by the end of the year.