Despite the implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the US, China’s economy showed resilience in April. According to Ho Woei Chen, an economist at UOB Group, the impact on exports was contained as other countries engaged in frontloading due to the US pausing their reciprocal tariffs with them. However, there was a slowdown in industrial production and weak performances in retail sales and urban fixed assets investment. Despite these challenges, there was positive momentum in month-on-month retail sales and fixed assets investment, and a decrease in surveyed jobless rates. The property market remains a concern for policy makers, with decreases in indicators such as home prices, property investment, and residential property sales. Taking into account the temporary boost from the 90-day US-China trade truce, we have adjusted our forecast for China’s GDP growth in 2025 from 4.3% to 4.6%, with an expected 4.9% year-on-year growth in the second quarter and a 4.2% growth in the second half of the year. The future of China’s economy still depends heavily on the outcome of the US-China trade negotiations and the eventual tariff rates. The government’s stimulus measures will continue to support and stabilize the economy. We stand by our prediction of a 0.1% interest rate cut in the fourth quarter of 2025, with the projected 7-day reverse repo rate, 1-year loan prime rate, and 5-year loan prime rate at 1.30%, 2.90%, and 3.40% respectively by the end of the year.