“USD/JPY surges towards mid-143.00s as Japanese Yen weakens and long-term JGB yields plummet”

During the European trading session, the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to decline, moving further away from its one-month high against the US dollar earlier this Tuesday. News that Japan is considering reducing the issuance of long-term bonds due to recent increases in bond yields has caused the yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds to fall to its lowest level since May 8. This, coupled with the positive sentiment following US President Donald Trump’s decision to delay imposing tariffs on the European Union (EU), have weakened the safe-haven appeal of the JPY. However, investors remain uncertain about Trump’s trade policies and the state of the US economy, which could limit any potential recovery for the US dollar (USD) and cap the USD/JPY pair. As such, it is advisable to wait for strong buying momentum before confirming that the pair has bottomed out or considering any significant gains ahead of this week’s important economic data releases from the US and Japan. On a technical level, the pair’s failure to break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-May rally, followed by a decline, suggests a bearish outlook. In addition, daily chart oscillators are still in negative territory and have not reached oversold levels, indicating a possibility for further depreciation in the near term. Any upside movement may face resistance at the 143.65 region, above which the USD/JPY pair could break through the 144.00 mark. However, the pair’s ascent may still be seen as an opportunity to sell near the 144.80 zone, with resistance continuing near the psychological level of 145.00. Alternatively, there is support at the 143.00 mark, followed by the 142.50-142.45 region. Bearish traders may wait for a sustained break below the 142.00 mark before entering new positions. In such a scenario, the pair could fall towards the intermediate support at 141.55, with further downward movement towards the year-to-date low below the 140.00 psychological level reached on April 22.

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